In the news
On 19 January, six nuns from the Congregation of the Sisters of Saint Anne were kidnapped while travelling by bus in Croix-des-Missions, Port-au-Prince. According to the Haitian Conference of the Religious, an unknown number of unidentified people on the bus were also kidnapped. Although no one has claimed responsibility, gangs are suspected to be behind the abductions. 

On 18 January, the Solino neighbourhood of Port-au-Prince was attacked by gang members, who raided houses and engaged in gunfire, killing 20 people. The area was placed under lockdown on the same day.

Since 13 January, there has been an increase in armed violence, which has been attributed to gangs seeking to put pressure on Haitian Prime Minister and acting President Ariel Henry. On 7 February, a political accord consolidated that his power was set to expire. The Haitian Conference of Religious condemned the “cowardly” kidnapping, and demanded the release of the nuns while calling on authorities to “ensure their safety and bring the perpetrators to justice.”

On 21 January, Pope Francis stated: “I join in asking for their release and pray for those who carry out this violence to have a conversion of heart.”

Issues at large
First, continuing gang violence and the weak state. Gang violence has become a part of daily life in Haiti and has been increasing since the assassination of former President Jovenel Moïse in 2021. The weakened security apparatus, lack of effective law enforcement and widespread impunity have allowed over 80 per cent of the capital to be controlled by over 200 gangs. In 2023, the UN documented 4,789 people killed in gang violence, an increase of 119 per cent compared with 2022, while 3,000 people were kidnapped. In response to escalating violence, a civilian self-defence movement known as “Bwa Kale” emerged, and gang members retaliated by creating their movement known as “Zam Pale,” which led to more clashes. Gangs use sexual violence to dominate communities and force families to pay higher ransoms. This issue has been complemented with impunity, and 2023 marked the first time Haiti joined the 2023 Global Impunity Index. According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), Haiti’s justice system “barely functions” and “impunity reigns.” 

Second, political instability. Haiti’s turbulent history of political leadership is a significant contributor to the country’s ongoing security crisis. President Michel Martelly stepped down from office in 2016 after postponing presidential elections twice and ruling by decree for more than a year. Moïse was elected as his successor that November but didn’t assume office until 2017 after allegations of fraud extended the election process. Moïse’s critics claimed that he allowed gangsters to function and helped them destabilise areas controlled by his political opponents. Following his assassination in 2021, Henry became the acting president, a succession that was never ratified by law. Elections have been postponed repeatedly since 2021. Civilians and gang members see his rule as illegitimate. Gangs have become the de facto authority in most parts of the country. 

Third, the failure of international missions. International assistance to Haiti often takes the form of short-term, crisis-driven interventions and fails to address the root causes of the issues. The 13-year UN mission in Haiti was characterised by sexual assaults, and the accidental introduction and spread of cholera. The US continues to support Henry, despite Haitian civilian leaders urging an end of support for a government they hold responsible for furthering violence. Following Henry’s calls for international assistance, on 26 January, the Kenyan High Court will decide whether a Kenya-led UN multinational mission can be legally deployed. However, civilians are strongly opposed to this, out of fears of human rights violations similar to past missions and the belief that the mission would support Henry’s “corrupt, illegitimate repressive” government.

In perspective
First, the potential for a surge in gang violence. Gangs have slowly begun extending to newer areas, implying that the violence is likely to increase in intensity and reach. They have created income streams from kidnapping, extortion, and trafficking. Coupled with a shortage of police who are usually outgunned, the violence would increase. Further, the breakdown of negotiation between Haiti’s biggest gangs, G9 and G-Pèp, in November 2023, will exacerbate clashes. This would imply a worsening situation for civilians, who are experiencing emergency levels of food insecurity and a cholera outbreak. 

Second, the probability of a power vacuum. As per a political agreement signed by Henry on 21 December 2022, elections were to be held in 2023 and the new government was supposed to be in power in February 2024. However, these elections were never conducted. The return of former rebel leader Guy Philippe could destabilise the transition process. Haiti is likely to face a political deadlock; without a legal governing body the situation would worsen.